Winchester, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

766
FXUS63 KLMK 220527
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1227 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cold overnight with lows in the low 20s and teens Sunday
  morning.

* Above normal temperatures Tuesday through Friday. Rain chances
  through the week, but low confidence regarding timing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

Sfc high pressure will build in over the Great Lakes and influence
the Ohio Valley through the short term. Per visible satellite
imagery, there were a few scattered cumulus clouds over mostly IN
with a few across the Blue Grass and along the Ohio River.
Temperatures were in the mid/upper 30s. Once we lose daytime heating
skies will clear and winds will decouple allowing for a very cold
overnight across central KY and southern IN. Lows will be in the low
20s with some upper teens across the Blue Grass by tomorrow morning.

Sfc high pressure will continue to build and push off to the east
over western NY and Lake Ontario as the upper pattern starts flatten
over the Ohio Valley. This will increase heights as winds will
become more southerly during the day tomorrow. Little WAA will help
temperature to be a few degrees warmer than they were today with
highs getting into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2024

Sunday night, surface high pressure and clear skies will lead to
light winds and strong radiative cooling, allowing one last night
with low temperatures near or just below normal with temperatures in
the 20s, but as we look forward to the rest of the week, southern
Indiana and central Kentucky will see a decent amount of cloud cover
with a few opportunities at some light rain chances through midweek.
The best chance for rain will come towards the weekend. Believe the
forecast through midweek will trend drier based on current trends.

Monday night into Tuesday, surface high pressure will stretch south
down the East Coast before cutting west across the Southeast. This
will drive return flow up the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
Moisture will increase along a weak cold front dropping south
through Indiana, but with PWATs only reaching to around 0.75" and
model soundings showing dry air below the thin later of moisture,
believe rain will be limited along and north of the Ohio River.
Temperatures are expected to reach into the mid 40s to low 50s.

Wednesday, warm air advection will push temperatures into the 50s
and bring increased deep layer moisture to the CWA ahead of a dying
surface low that is expected to fall apart at is crosses the
southern Mississippi River Valley. This will likely produce higher
rainfall amounts over areas along the western side of the CWA, but
this isn`t expected to be a heavy rain producer with less than a
tenth of an inch expected in areas that see the most rain.

Nearing the weekend, a cold front will likely bring more widespread
heavier rain to the region. Guidance doesn`t fully agree on the
timing, but with continued warming, temperatures are expected to be
in the upper 50s to low 60s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

VFR conditions and light winds expected as cold and dry high
pressure over the Great Lakes remains in control. Light winds from
the east during the day will veer to SE in the afternoon/evening as
the sfc high retreats toward New England.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...RAS